The growing energy appetite of the developed and developing world, particularly the newly industrialising countries of China and India, needs to be reconciled with a greater commitment to reduce spiralling greenhouse gas emissions. Given the correlation between economic growth and energy consumption, a middle ground must be found to balance the competing forces of environmental sustainability and energy demand into a carbon-constrained future.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook (2009) projects that under a reference scenario "business as usual", the world's energy demand will grow by 40 percent between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms. Even with the growth in renewables, nuclear and gas, fossil fuels will account for 77 percent of the increased global deman for power by 2030. Demand for coal will grow by 53 percent in that time.
Today, coal contributes about 26 percent of global primary energy demand and is used to produce 41.5 percent of the world's electricity. Momentum driving coal consumption growth in the developed and developing world is projected to continue, with research indicating coal-based power generation is on the verge of rapid expansion in the United States, China and India.
Under this scenario, fossil fuels will continue to be the dominant source of energy accounting for 84 percent of the overall increase in demand between 2005 and 2030. Developing countries, whose economies and populations are growing fastest, will contribute 74 percent of the increase in global primary energy use in this scenario. The IEA reference scenario points to China and India as the emerging giants, accounting for 45 percent of this global primary energy use.
The deployment of low-emission technologies will play an essential role in the global response to climate change by allowing countries to pursue their development aspirations while simultaneously achieving environmental outcomes, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions.